Archive for the ‘ National Security Analysis ’ Category

Coming interview on Mexico’s involvement in Peacekeeping Operations

Some days ago, we bought this book at the Mexican Navy Center for Higher Studies.

Introduction to Peacekeeping Operations, Author: Alfonso J. Motta Allen

 

The author, a former Mexican Navy officer and Dalhousie University PhD. in International Relations, is a well regarded expert in National Security and United Nations Peacekeeping Operations (UNPKO).
Next week, MXSECURITY will interview Mr. Motta on Mexico’s future involvement in UNPKO.
 You can send your questions by posting them on the “comments” section.
Till next week.
MXSECURITY Staff.

Urban infrastructure and system disruptions: the next stage of narco-violence?

In the summer of 2007, a number of Improvised Explosive Devices (IED’s) destroyed gas pipelines in the states of Guanajuato, Querétaro and Veracruz. The explosions –vindicated by the Marxist guerrilla group Popular Revolutionary Army- did not cause human casualties, but inflicted serious economic damage worth 150 million dollars.

On May 13, 2010 several electricity blackouts affected 13 out of 16 Mexico City’s districts, altering normal life in one of the world’s biggest cities. The Mexican Electrical Workers Union (SME in Spanish) is being accused by government authorities as the group behind the attacks.

While these attacks have been political-motivated so far, they present a serious challenge to Mexico’s National Security in the context of the war against drugs and organized crime.

Let me be clear on this. Given the enormous availability of resources among Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTO’s), the use of system disruption techniques would have devastating effects.

In MXSECURITY we believe that there is a possibility that DTO’s could eventually attack critical urban infrastructure within Mexico’s most important cities, targeting electric power lines, sewage and potable water pipes or telephone/internet communication hubs.

Local governments (state, city levels) should start thinking of anti-disruption tactics.

To learn more on system disruption experiences I recommend John Robb’s book “Brave New War, the next stage of terrorism and the end of globalization”. You can also follow his blog on. For a more profound analysis regarding urban-guerrilla disruption tactics you should read “Swarming on the Battlefield”, by the US think tank RAND.

Local police forces’ transformation: the missing link in countering organized crime.

Since President Calderon arrived to Office in late 2006, he made it clear that his government’s top priority would be to tackle Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTO´s). His first executive order in the matter was to send thousands of soldiers to the western state of Michoacán, then the hot spot of DTO’s related violence.

In the coming months, the Federal Government kept sending military, navy and police units to embattled zones such as Baja California, Durango, Chihuahua and Tamaulipas.

The main objective of such troop deployments was simple: to regain control of DTO’s-controlled areas and bring them under the “rule of law”.

Nevertheless some politicians and even policy makers confused –deliberately or not- the “tactical objective” with the long term strategy, which required a wider approach beyond military operations.

Yet this misunderstanding is still part of the public debate for two main reasons: first, the Federal Government has failed to explain the general strategy correctly and, on the other hand, some politicians use this apparent confusion to avoid their share of responsibility in the “war on drugs”. And this is what I call “the missing link”.

Let me explain what I consider the core strategy and how some politicians –mostly governors- are evading their role in it.

The core strategy, although complex in its details, is comprised of three main phases:

1. Tactical Objective:

To regain control of geographic areas embattled by Drug Trafficking and Organized Crime syndicates.  Given the operational capabilities needed to back this phase, the Government would use military personnel while transforming the Federal Police into a well-capable force.

2. Mid-Term Objective:

Once the Federal Police is ready to replace the Armed Forces, the military would assume a “back-up” role participating only in special, surgical operations. This phase requires that the Federal Police has undertaken a deep modernization process, regarding not only its hardware equipment but also its operational procedures, intelligence and anti-corruption capabilities.

3. Long-Term Objective:

While military forces are performing a “back-up role” for the whole strategy, and the Federal Police is in charge of tackling organized crime, it is time for the local authorities to undertake a serious transformation to their local police and judicial forces.  

Yet to achieve this Long-Term Objective, the general strategy requires a full commitment of state governors and their security apparatus. And this is precisely the “missing link” I was talking about.

There are two main actions that state authorities must carry out as part of the general strategy: to modernize their local police forces (creating a single state police force) and to reform the judicial apparatus towards verbal, transparent and more effective procedures.  

With some exceptions, the bulk of state governors are simply not endorsing these actions. Why? Well, if they do modernize their police and judicial structures, they will simply lose control over them.

The state governors’ unwillingness to assume a more active role in the general strategy against organized crime is serious and very dangerous.  

Let’s put it this way: should local police and judicial forces remain unchanged, organized crime will establish its stronghold under the safe haven of state authorities.

The success of the general strategy against DTO’s depends on the state governor’s commitment, and not only the Federal Authorities’ one.

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